Job Market Paper:
Who Marries Whom? The Role of Segregation by Race and Class
Non-Technical Summary | County Level Marriage Patterns
Americans rarely marry outside of their race or class group. We distinguish between two possible explanations: a lack of exposure to other groups versus a preference to marry within group. We develop an instrument for neighborhood exposure to opposite-sex members of other race and class groups using variation in sex ratios among nearby birth cohorts in childhood neighborhoods. We then test whether increased exposure results in more interracial (white-Black) and interclass (top-to-bottom parent income quartile) marriages. Increased exposure to opposite-sex members of other class groups generates a substantial increase in interclass marriage, but increased exposure to other race groups has no detectable effect on interracial marriage. We use these results to estimate a spatial model of the marriage market and quantify the impact of reducing residential segregation in general equilibrium. For small changes in exposure, the model implies effects in line with recent estimates from policy experiments. We then use the model to assess the overall contribution of segregation and find that residential segregation has large effects on interclass, but not interracial, marriage.
Can Individualized Student Supports Improve Economic Outcomes for Children in High Poverty Schools?
How can we improve outcomes for low-income students? We analyze the adult earnings impacts of the largest comprehensive student support program in the United States. Communities in Schools (CIS) places a “navigator” in high-poverty schools who provides an integrated system of supports to students, including academic (e.g., tutoring), economic (e.g., access to food assistance, housing), and mentoring. In 2023, CIS worked with 1.8 million students in 3,750 schools. Using later-treated CIS schools as a control, we estimate that four years of exposure to CIS generates a $1,500 (6% of control mean) increase in earnings at age 30. Effects are larger for students from low-income families and are driven by a reduction in non-employment and an increase in the probability of having a low-paying job. Each child exposed to four years of CIS is expected to pay an additional $9,000 in taxes between ages 18-65, which compares favorably to the direct cost of the program. Our results are relevant for the growing community school movement and illuminate a possible path for improving economic mobility in low opportunity neighborhoods.
Impact of CIS on Earnings in Adulthood
Growing Class Gaps, Shrinking Race Gaps: Economic and Sociological Mechanisms Underlying Recent Trends in Intergenerational Mobility (Draft coming soon)
Presented at NBER SI 2023 and NBER Mobility Fall 2023
We study the mechanisms underlying recent trends in economic opportunity using anonymized longitudinal data covering nearly the entire U.S. population. We first document a pattern of growing white class gaps and shrinking race gaps in intergenerational mobility. For white children born between 1978 and 1992, intergenerational mobility fell substantially, with improving outcomes for children from high-income families and deteriorating outcomes for children from low-income families (growing white class gaps). Outcomes for Black children improved across all parent income levels in the same birth cohorts, leading to declining Black-white earnings gaps for the majority of Black children (shrinking race gaps). These divergent trends by race and class occur even for children living in the same Census tracts, indicating that they are driven by shocks that affect these groups differently. We then explore the forces underlying these different race and class shocks, showing that changes in intergenerational mobility are closely linked to changes in group-specific parent employment rates. Quasi-experimental estimates based on children who move across counties show that spending an additional year of childhood in a county where parent employment rates in one's race and class group are declining has negative effects on earnings in adulthood. The effects are group- and cohort-specific, with no effect of parent employment rates in other groups or birth cohorts. These group- and cohort-specific childhood exposure effects suggest that changes to parent employment rates impact outcomes through changes in the childhood environment, not through shared labor market shocks. We conclude by showing that nearly all of the declining race gaps and expanding white class gaps at the national level can be explained by different changes in the childhood environment, with low-income white parents experiencing the largest employment declines during the period we study.
Growing Class Gaps, Shrinking Race Gaps
What Explains Temporal and Geographic Variation in the Early US Coronavirus Pandemic?
Media: Vox | Forbes
We provide new evidence on the drivers of the early US coronavirus pandemic. We combine an epidemiological model of disease transmission with quasi-random variation arising from the timing of stay-at-home-orders to estimate the causal roles of policy interventions and voluntary social distancing. We then relate the residual variation in disease transmission rates to observable features of cities. We estimate significant impacts of policy and social distancing responses, but we show that the magnitude of policy effects is modest, and most social distancing is driven by voluntary responses. Moreover, we show that neither policy nor rates of voluntary social distancing explain a meaningful share of geographic variation. The most important predictors of which cities were hardest hit by the pandemic are exogenous characteristics such as population and density.
Within-Industry Agglomeration of Occupations: Evidence from Census Microdata
Journal of Regional Science 59.5 (2019): 910-930
This study uses worker-level data on industry, occupation, and place of work to explore differences in the spatial properties of production, administrative, and R&D occupation groups within industries. To measure differences, we calculate location quotients at the local labor market level and the Duranton and Overman (2005) agglomeration index for each group. We find appreciable differences in the spatial distribution of occupation groups within most manufacturing industries, with R&D occupations consistently exhibiting the highest degree of spatial concentration. Our results are consistent with the core theoretical and empirical results in the agglomeration literature.
Research in Progress:
Leveraging Mixed Methods to Understand Economic and Sociological Mechanisms Underlying Recent Changes in Intergenerational Mobility
The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Low-Wage Workers
The Effect of Low-level Arrests on the Early-life Trajectory of Urban Youth
Interracial Marriage and Racial Disparities
Any opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views of the U.S. Census Bureau. The Census Bureau has ensured appropriate access and use of confidential data and has reviewed these results for disclosure avoidance protection (Project 7519874: Segregation and Marriage CBDRB-FY23-0492, CBDRB-FY23-CES014-009, Student Supports CBDRB-FY23-CES014-028, Class and Race Gaps CBDRB-FY22-CES010-004, CBDRB-FY23-0375)